Kyoto ou les priorités injustifiées

Lorsque le Protocole de Kyoto entrera en vigueur le 16 février, les activistes du réchauffement climatique pourront se féliciter : c’est le traité international le plus cher de tous les temps, et ils ont réussi à faire du réchauffement de la planète une épreuve morale essentielle pour notre époque. Ils ont eu tort.

En effet, le réchauffement climatique est un phénomène bien réel, causé par les émissions de dioxyde de carbone (CO2). Mais les modèles existants montrent que nous ne pouvons pas faire grand chose pour y remédier. Même si le monde entier (y compris les Etats-Unis) appliquait le Protocole à la lettre pendant tout le XXIe siècle, les effets seraient presque insignifiants : l’échéance serait simplement repoussée de six ans en 2100, au prix d’au moins 150 milliards de dollars par an.

Les plus touchés seront les pays en développement, plus pauvres et donc plus vulnérables. Pourtant en 2100, même selon les prévisions les plus pessimistes des Nations Unies, les habitants de ces pays seront plus riches qu’aujourd’hui, et donc mieux à même de surmonter les difficultés.

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