Paul Krugman and David Cameron Wikimedia Commons

L'économie britannique et Cameron : Krugman en pleine contradiction

NEW YORK – Il est étrange de voir Paul Krugman s'en prendre tant et plus au gouvernement britannique. Il débute ainsi son dernier article interminable : "Depuis la crise financière, les résultats de l'économie britannique sont étonnamment mauvais". Il critique le gouvernement de Cameron pour ses "mauvais résultats économiques" et se demande comment ce dernier peut se présenter en "garant de la prospérité".

Examinons ses assertions de plus près. Depuis quelques mois Krugman fait l'éloge de la reprise américaine sous les auspices du président Obama et remet en question la reprise britannique. Pourtant, à comparer les deux économies, leurs trajectoires sont similaires et le Royaume-Uni fait mieux au regard de certains indicateurs.

En premier lieu, qu'en est-il du taux de chômage ? Au cours du dernier trimestre de 2007 il était de 5,2% au Royaume-Uni  et de 4,8% aux USA ; en mai 2010 il était de 7,9% au Royaume-Uni lorsque Cameron est arrivé aux affaires et de 9,8% pour la période mars 2010-mai 2010 aux USA. Enfin, pour la période novembre 2014-janvier 2015 il était de 5,7% au Royaume-Uni et de 5,4% aux USA. Dans les deux pays, le taux de chômage est donc maintenant légèrement au-dessus de son niveau d'avant-crise, tandis que leur cycle des affaires est sensiblement le même depuis fin 2007.

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