Paul Krugman e la ripresa di Obama

NEW YORK – Da diversi anni, e anche più volte nello stesso mese, l’economista, premio Nobel, giornalista del New York Times e blogger Paul Krugman ha comunicato un unico messaggio ai suoi fedeli lettori: gli “austerians” (così definisce i paladini dell’austerità fiscale) si sbagliano. Il rigore fiscale lanciato in mezzo a una debole domanda privata provoca una disoccupazione cronicamente elevata. I tagli del deficit farebbero rivivere ciò che è accaduto nel 1937, quando Franklin D. Roosevelt ridusse prematuramente gli stimoli del New Deal rigettando così gli Stati Uniti nella recessione.

Dunque, il Congresso e la Casa Bianca hanno di fatto giocato la carta dell’austerità da metà del 2011 in avanti. Il deficit del budget federale è sceso dall’8,4% del Pil nel 2011 a un previsto 2,9% del Pil per tutto il 2014. E, secondo il Fondo monetario internazionale, il deficit strutturale (talvolta chiamato “deficit di piena occupazione”), un parametro degli stimoli fiscali, è sceso dal 7,8% di Pil potenziale al 4% di Pil potenziale dal 2011 al 2014.

Krugman ha rivendicato con vigore il fatto che la riduzione del deficit si sia prolungata e abbia persino intensificato ciò che ripetutamente definisce una “depressione” (o talvolta “depressione di basso grado”). Solo gli stolti come i leader del Regno Unito (che gli hanno ricordato i Tre Marmittoni) potrebbero credere diversamente.

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