安倍经济学有作用吗?

东京—去年4月,日本政府实施了计划已久政策,将消费税从5%提高到8%,这是到2015年将该税率提高到10%的两步计划的第一步。此次增税是首相安倍晋三为重振日本经济而提出的三管齐下战略—— “安倍经济学”的关键部分,表明了政府对财政整合的长期承诺。但它也给日本宏观经济带来了重创。

初步GDP数据显示,今年二季度日本经济同比收缩6.8%——为2011年地震和海啸摧毁日本以来的最大降幅。此外,消费支出下降创出了历史记录,导致去年7月以来实际(经通胀调整)下降5.9%。

但这并不是坏消息的全部。扩张性货币政策——安倍经济学所谓三支“箭”中次于财政刺激的第二支——令失业率只有3.8%。可申请岗位数/申请人数比超过1:1,而GDP 平减指数也收窄到接近于零。

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