Chi ha paura del tapering?

TOKYO – L’uscita graduale della Federal Reserve statunitense dalla politica di quantitative easing (QE), ovvero l’acquisto senza limiti temporali di beni a lungo termine, sta preoccupando i mercati finanziari e i policy maker, mentre la possibilità di fughe di capitali dalle economie in via di sviluppo e del crollo dei prezzi dei beni sono ormai l’oggetto principale del dibattito mondiale. Ma dato che le principali economie operano in un regime di tasso di cambio flessibile, queste preoccupazioni sono per la maggior parte infondate.

La logica dietro la paura della riduzione del quantitative easing della Fed è piuttosto chiara. La politica monetaria anticonformista degli Stati Uniti (e di altri paesi avanzati, in particolar modo del Regno Unito e del Giappone) ha ridotto i tassi di interesse a livello nazionale, creando una liquidità consistente nei mercati finanziari internazionali. Gli investitori, in cerca di rendite più consistenti, hanno trasferito questa liquidità (per gran parte sotto forma di capitale speculativo a breve termine, ovvero “denaro caldo”) nei mercati emergenti, mettendo una pressione al rialzo sui tassi di cambio e alimentando i rischi di eventuali bolle sui prezzi delle attività. Il ritiro della Fed dal quantitative easing finirebbe per essere accompagnato da un’inversione dei flussi di capitale, provocando un aumento del costo dei prestiti e ponendo dei seri ostacoli alla crescita del PIL.  

Ovviamente, non tutti i mercati emergenti, in base a questa logica, sono esposti in maniera uguale. Tra i paesi più vulnerabili ci sono la Turchia, il Sudafrica, il Brasile, l’India e l’Indonesia (i cosiddetti “cinque paesi fragili”) che presentano dei deficit gemelli e di conto corrente, un alto tasso di inflazione ed una crescita del PIL in difficoltà.

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