谁在害怕退出?

东京—美联储的逐渐退出所谓量化宽松(QE,即无限期购买长期资产)让金融市场和决策者担忧不已,关于资本将从发达经济体外逃、资产价格将崩溃的警告充斥着全世界的政策讨论。但是,大部分主要经济体是在浮动汇率制度下运转的,这些担忧基本上都是无稽之谈。

美联储“退出”QE的恐慌背后的逻辑是显而易见的。美国(以及其他发达国家,特别是英国和日本)的非常规货币政策降低了国内利率,同时也让流动性在全球金融市场上泛滥。寻找更高收益率的投资者带着这一流动性——大部分是短期投机性资本(“热”钱)来到新兴市场,给它们的汇率造成了升值风险,也助长了资产泡沫风险。因此,美联储的退出QE将伴随资本流的逆转,提高借贷成本、妨碍GDP增长。

当然,根据这一逻辑,并非所有新兴市场都存在相同的风险。风险最高的国家是土耳其、南非、巴西、印度和印尼,即所谓的“脆弱五国”,它们都存在财政和经常项目双重赤字、高企的通胀以及萎靡不振的GDP增长。

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