La calificación de la Abenomics

TOKIO – Hace ya casi un año que el Primer Ministro Shinzo Abe lanzó su plan para sacar la economía del Japón de sus dos decenios de deflación y recesión. ¿Qué resultados ha obtenido la Abenomics (“economía de Abe”) hasta ahora?

Para responder esa pregunta, hay que  descomponer la Abenomics en tres componentes –relajación monetaria en gran escala, política fiscal expansionista y estrategia de crecimiento a largo plazo–, que Abe, refiriéndose al cuento de Motonari Mori, daimyo (“señor feudal”) del siglo XVI, llama las “tres flechas”. Según la leyenda, Mori ordenó a cada uno de sus tres hijos que rompiera una flecha en dos. Después de que lograran hacerlo, les dijo que atasen tres flechas juntas y rompieran al instante todo el manojo; ninguno de ellos pudo hacerlo.

Como las tres flechas de Mori, las tres de la Abenomics deben reforzarse mutuamente, pero las de Mori estaban atadas paralelamente, mientras que las de la política de Abe están conectadas mediante relaciones estructurales subyacentes. Mientras que las dos primeras flechas van encaminadas a transformar la vía de crecimiento real del Japón, la tercera corresponde a la vía del crecimiento potencial de la economía, que supone la utilización óptima de todos los recursos y tecnologías disponibles.

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