Welk cijfer krijgt Abenomics?

TOKYO – Het is bijna een jaar geleden dat premier Shinzo Abe zijn plan lanceerde om de Japanse economie uit twee decennia van deflatie en recessie te tillen. Hoe gaat het tot nu toe met ‘Abenomics’?

Om deze vraag te beantwoorden moet Abenomics in drie componenten onderverdeeld worden: zeer ruime monetaire versoepeling, een expansief fiscaal beleid en een groeistrategie voor de lange termijn. Dit noemt Abe, refererend aan het verhaal van Motonari Mori, een daimyo (leenheer) uit de 16e eeuw, ‘de drie pijlen’. Volgens de legende droeg Mori zijn drie zonen op elk een pijl door het midden te breken. Nadat ze dit gedaan hadden, zei hij ze de drie pijlen samen te binden en deze bundel door het midden te breken. Het lukte hen geen van drieën.

Net zoals bij de pijlen van Mori, is de bedoeling van de drie pijlen van Abenomics dat ze elkaar versterken. Maar Mori’s pijlen waren parallel samengebonden terwijl de pijlen van Abe’s beleid verbonden zijn door onderliggende structurele relaties. Waar de eerste twee pijlen tot doel hebben de werkelijke groei van Japan te veranderen, gaat de derde over de potentiele groei van de economie, waarbij er vanuit gegaan wordt alle beschikbare hulpbronnen en technologieën optimaal gebruikt worden.

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