给安倍经济学打分

东京—自首相安倍晋三抛出其日本经济走出二十年通缩和衰退计划以来已经过去了近一年时间。“安倍经济学”进展如何?

要回答这个问题,需要将安倍经济学分解为三个成分——大规模货币宽松、扩张性财政政策,以及长期增长战略——安倍晋三援引十六世纪大名毛利元就的传说称之为“三支箭”。传说毛利元就让三个儿子各自将一支箭折断。成功后,毛利元就又让儿子们将三支箭绑在一起折,没人能够折断。

像毛利的三支箭一样,安倍经济学的三支箭也应该是互相强化的。但毛利的箭平行地绑在一起,而安倍的政策之箭是通过基础结构关系联系在一起。第一支和第二支箭的目标是转变日本的实际增长路径,而第三支箭——实现所有可用资源和技术的最优用途——要改变日本经济的潜在增长路径。

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