Мировая экономика в 2014 году

ЖЕНЕВА – Встает заря нового года, но в мире до сих пор происходят эпохальные перемены. Экономические модели роста, геополитическая картина мира, социальные договоренности, которые связывают людей вместе, и экосистема нашей планеты все одновременно подвергнуты радикальным преобразованиям, которые вызывают тревогу и беспорядки во многих странах мира.

С экономической точки зрения, мы вступаем в эпоху меньших ожиданий и больших неопределенностей. С точки зрения роста, мир должен будет выжить с меньшими затратами. Чтобы понять последствия этого, необходимо учитывать следующее: если бы мировая экономика росла с докризисным темпом (более 5% в год) в обозримом будущем, ее размер удвоился бы менее чем за 15 лет, а рост на уровне 3% удвоил бы мировой ВВП через 25 лет.

Это очень много значит для скорости роста, с которой происходит обеспечение благосостояния, и имеет глубокие последствия для экономических ожиданий. Не знание силы комбинированного роста вскоре нанесет нам ущерб.

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