Die Weltwirtschaft im Jahr 2014

GENF – Zu Beginn des neuen Jahres befindet sich die Welt inmitten mehrerer kolossaler Umwälzungen. Ökonomische Wachstumsmuster, die geopolitische Landschaft, der die Menschen verbindende Gesellschaftsvertrag und das Ökosystem unseres Planeten unterliegen radikalen, gleichzeitig stattfindenden Veränderungen, die für Angst und vielerorts auch für Turbulenzen sorgen.

Aus ökonomischer Perspektive betrachtet, steht uns ein Zeitalter schwindender Erwartungen und erhöhter Unsicherheit bevor. Hinsichtlich des Wachstums wird die Welt mit weniger leben müssen. Um die Auswirkungen dieser Entwicklung zu verstehen, bedenke man Folgendes: Wüchse die Weltwirtschaft für absehbare Zeit im Vorkrisentempo weiter (über 5 Prozent pro Jahr) würde sich ihr Ausmaß in weniger als 15 Jahren verdoppeln; bei einem Wachstum von 3 Prozent jährlich brauchte es allerdings etwa 25 Jahre, bis sich das globale BIP verdoppelt.

Dies bedeutet einen erheblichen Unterschied hinsichtlich des Tempos, in dem Wohlstand geschaffen wird und daraus ergeben sich tiefgreifende Auswirkungen auf die Erwartungen. Zu unserem Nachteil ignorieren wir die Macht des Gesamtwachstums.

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  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

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    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

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    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

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    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

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    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

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    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

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    Rage Against the Elites

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    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

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