L'économie mondiale en 2014

GENÈVE – A l'aube d'une année nouvelle, le monde est au centre de plusieurs transitions majeures. Les modèles de croissance économique, le paysage géopolitique, le contrat social qui oblige les personnes et l'écosystème de notre planète traversent tous des transformations radicales et simultanées qui engendrent l'anxiété et dans de nombreux endroits, la tourmente.

D'un point de vue économique, nous entrons dans une ère d'attentes revues à la baisse et d'incertitude accrue. En termes de croissance, le monde devra vivre avec moins de ressources. Pour comprendre les implications de ce phénomène, il faut examiner les points suivants : si l'économie mondiale progresse à son rythme d'avant la crise (plus de 5% par an) dans un avenir prévisible, sa taille va doubler en moins de 15 ans. A 3%, le doublement du PIB mondial devrait prendre environ 25 ans.

Cela représente une différence importante sur la vitesse de création des richesses. Cela entraîne aussi des effets profonds sur les prévisions. Nous ignorons l'influence de l'intérêt composé à notre détriment.

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