打击耗油习惯

德国总理默克尔已经将处理气候变化作为将于一月开始的德国担任欧盟和八国集团轮值主席国的高度优先问题。不妨提出一个具体的提议,那就是在下一届八国集团首脑会议上制定一个日期,从这一日期以后,主要工业化国家都将不再给由汽油驱动的汽车颁发执照。这一提议十分通用,足以让世界各国领导人考虑以及接受,而且十分明晰,足以让其他国家政府和工商界人士来加以领会。

这一决定将会产生极为积极的经济和地缘政治影响。如今对于能源的担忧的实际原因并非是世界石油储备的下降,而是最大石油消费国,例如欧洲、美国和中国的国内石油生产在不断增长的亚洲国家需求拖累市场之际下降。现有的储备将日益集中在中东,简单的原因就是所有其他地区的储备将会提前耗尽。

而且,主要石油出口国不愿意将它们的投资政策屈从于市场要求。沙特阿拉伯寻求独立自主地进行石油生产,伊朗以官僚主义障碍和腐败吓跑潜在的投资者。伊拉克苦于缺乏安全,而外国投资者在俄罗斯四处碰壁。这四个国家拥有世界探明储备的一半以及可能出口的石油的三分之二。所有这些、而非生产成本是高油价以及追逐中亚和非洲石油合同的本因。

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