Čínské spotřebitelské děti

PEKING – Vedoucí představitelé Číny souhlasili se zmírněním několik desítek let staré „politiky jednoho dítěte“. Od nynějška budou páry moci mít dvě děti, pokud je jeden rodič jedináček (dosud museli být jedináčky oba rodiče), díky čemuž se bude nové pravidlo vztahovat na většinu příslušníků generace narozené po roce 1980, která vyrostla v městských oblastech. Ačkoliv jsou však potenciální sociální důsledky zřejmé, pravděpodobný ekonomický dopad tohoto kroku je patrný již méně.

Když byla politika jednoho dítěte v roce 1979 zavedena – ve snaze zmírnit sociální, hospodářské a ekologické tlaky vyplývající z populační exploze v 50. a 60. letech –, úhrnná plodnost prudce poklesla ze tří dětí na domácnost v roce 1970 na 1,2 dítěte v roce 1982. Míra úspor domácností následně zaznamenala značný růst, a to z 10,4% v roce 1983 na ohromujících 30,5% v roce 2011. Mohla tento vzestup rozdmýchat politika jednoho dítěte? A pokud ano, uspíší úprava této politiky obrat zmíněného trendu a zajistí díky tomu explozi spotřeby v nadcházejícím desetiletí?

Rostoucí úhrnná plodnost může snížit míru úspor domácností dvěma hlavními způsoby. Za prvé děti vyžadují zvýšené výdaje domácností – zejména na vzdělání, které v případě jednoho dítěte ve věku 15-22 let představuje 15-25% celkových výdajů průměrné čínské domácnosti (viz obrázek 1). A za druhé rodiče s vyšším počtem dětí, které je budou moci ve stáří podporovat, cítí nižší tlak spořit si na důchod.

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