John Maynard Keynes Globe Photos/ZUMAPRESS

凯恩斯《通论》80周年

伦敦—1935年,凯恩斯给萧伯纳写信说:“我在写一本经济理论的书,我自信它将掀起一场世界看待经济问题的大革命——不是立刻,而是在十年后。”确实,1936年2月出版的凯恩斯的名著《就业、利息和货币通论》改变了经济学和经济决策。八十年后,凯恩斯的理论仍然成立吗?

凯恩斯的遗产中有两个要素地位稳固。首先,凯恩斯发明了宏观经济学——关于作为整体的产出的理论。他将他的理论称为“通论”,以区别于凯恩斯之前的理论。此前的理论假设一个独特的产出水平——充分就业。

凯恩斯证明了经济可能陷入“就业不足”均衡,从而挑战了当时正统经济学的中心思想:所有商品,包括劳动力在内的市场通过价格同时实现出清。他的挑战产生了全新的决策维度:政府可能需要用赤字来维持充分就业。

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