Keynes versus klasici: druhé kolo

LONDÝN – Ekonom John Maynard Keynes napsal Obecnou teorii zaměstnanosti, úroku a peněz (1936), aby „jako téma nadnesl hluboké názorové neshody mezi kolegy ekonomy, které pro tuto chvíli téměř rozprášily praktický vliv ekonomické teorie…“ Sedmdesát let poté si ekonomové těžké váhy stále jdou vzájemně po krku, slovy od 30. let 20. století téměř nezměněnými.

V nejčerstvějším pěstním souboji se střetá novokeynesiánský šampion Paul Krugman z Princetonské univerzity s novoklasicistním přeborníkem Johnem Cochranem z Chicagské univerzity. Krugman před časem zveřejnil novinový článek nazvaný „Čím to že ekonomové byli tak vedle?“ V ekonomice hlavního proudu, napsal Krugman, nebylo nic, co by „naznačovalo možnost takového kolapsu, k jakému loni došlo“.

Příčina prý tkvěla v tom, že „ekonomové jako skupina za pravdu mylně pokládali krásu, oděnou do působivě vypadající matematiky“. Byli šiřiteli „idealizované vize ekonomiky, v níž na dokonalých trzích vstupují do vzájemných vztahů racionální jedinci“. Naneštěstí „tato přikrášlená představa ekonomie způsobila, že většina ekonomů přehlížela vše, co by se mohlo zvrtnout“. Ekonomové tudíž budou muset uznat „význam iracionálního a často nepředvídatelného chování, vypořádat se s nezřídka idiosynkratickými nedostatky trhů a smířit se s tím, že elegantní ekonomická ‚teorie všeho‘ je ještě daleko“.

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