Una lágrima por la Argentina

CAMBRIDGE – La última suspensión de pagos de la Argentina plantea cuestiones inquietantes a los encargados de la formulación de políticas. Es cierto que las periódicas crisis de deuda de este país son a menudo consecuencia de políticas macroeconómicas destructivas, pero esta vez el desencadenante de la suspensión de pagos ha sido un cambio importante en el régimen internacional de la deuda soberana.

Dicho cambio favorece a los acreedores intransigentes en el caso de las emisiones de bonos regidas por la legislación de los EE.UU. Al aminorarse el crecimiento de los mercados en ascenso y aumentar la deuda exterior, unas nuevas interpretaciones jurídicas que dificulten mas las reestructuraciones y las futuras reprogramaciones de la deuda no son un buen augurio para la estabilidad financiera mundial.

En esta historia no hay héroes y, desde luego, no lo son las autoridades de la Argentina, que hace un decenio intentaron imponer unilateralmente una generalizada reestructuración en gran escala a los titulares extranjeros de bonos. Los economistas que pregonaron el “consenso de Buenos Aires” como la nueva forma de dirigir las economías también resultan ridículos a posteriori. El Fondo Monetario Internacional reconoció hace mucho haber concedido demasiados préstamos para intentar salvar la insostenible vinculación de la Argentina con el dólar cuando se desplomó en 2001.

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