Слеза для Аргентины

Последний дефолт Аргентины представляет тревожные вопросы для политиков. Правда, периодические кризисы задолженности в стране часто являются результатом деструктивной макроэкономической политики. Но, на этот раз, дефолт был вызван значительным сдвигом в международном режиме суверенного долга.

Сдвиг предпочитает твердых кредиторов в эмиссии облигаций, регулируемых законодательством США. С замедлением роста развивающихся рынков и растущим внешним долгом, новые правовые интерпретации, которые делают долговое будущее списание и переоформление задолженности труднее, не предвещают ничего хорошего для глобальной финансовой стабильности.

В этой истории нет героев - их не найдешь особенно в депутатах Аргентины, которые десять лет назад пытались в одностороннем порядке заставить массивное обобщенное списание на иностранных держателей облигаций. Экономисты, которые трубили «консенсус Буэнос-Айреса» в качестве нового способа для запуска экономики также выглядят глупо в ретроспективе. Международный валютный фонд уже давно признал, что он выдал слишком много долгов, чтобы попытаться спасти неустойчивую привязку Аргентины к доллару когда она рухнула в 2001 году.

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