¿Hasta qué punto son frágiles los mercados en ascenso?

CAMBRIDGE – Los valores y los tipos de cambio de los mercados en ascenso vuelven a estar sometidos a una intensa presión bajista, pero, ¿son las economías subyacentes tan frágiles como los operadores de bolsa mundiales parecen temer? La respuesta breve, para unos pocos, es probablemente “sí”, pero, para la mayoría, “aún no”.

En el caso de la mayoría de los países, lo que estamos viendo es una recalibración, porque los inversores tienen en cuenta el riesgo de que el PIB de China aumente más despacio, la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos empiece a endurecer las condiciones monetarias más rápidamente y el retroceso normativo en muchos países socave el crecimiento potencial. Al mismo tiempo, el cambio en gran escala de Europa al haber acumulado un superávit comercial (factor decisivo que sustenta la nueva estabilidad de esa región) y la profunda depreciación del yen japonés son algunos de los innumerables factores que presionan a los países que intentan poner freno a los déficits por cuenta corriente.

Parece que fuera ayer cuando los analistas de Goldman Sachs celebraban el milagroso crecimiento de los BRICS (el Brasil, Rusia, la India, China y Sudáfrica) y el Foro Monetario Internacional, en su Perspectivas de la economía mundial de abril de 2013, preveía una recuperación mundial con tres velocidades y encabezada por los mercados en ascenso.

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