Насколько хрупки страны с развивающимися рынками?

КЕМБРИДЖ – Акции и курсы валют в странах с развивающимися рынками снова находятся под серьезным отрицательным давлением, но правда ли то, что их экономики действительно настолько хрупки, насколько боятся мировые трейдеры? Для некоторых, короткий ответ звучит «да», но для большинства все таки «еще нет».

В большинстве стран, то, что мы сейчас видим является калибровкой, так как инвесторы понимают риск того, что ВВП Китая может вырасти более медленно, a Федеральная резервная система США может начать ужесточение денежно-кредитных условий более быстро, и отдышка от жесткой политики во многих странах может подорвать потенциал роста. В то же время, массовый переход Европы на избытки в торговом балансе (одним из ключевых факторов, лежащим в основе вновь обретенной стабильности в регионе) и резкая депрециация японской иены являются одними из множества факторов, которые сжимают страны, стремящиеся обуздать дефицит в счете текущих операций.

Кажется, что только вчера аналитики Goldman Sachs праздновали изумительный рост стран «БРИКС» (Бразилия, Россия , Индия, Китай и Южная Африка) и Международный валютный фонд, в своем апрельском Мировом Экономическом Прогнозе 2013 (World Economic Outlook), предсказывал трехкратное увеличение в скорости восстановления мировой экономики во главе с развивающимися рынками.

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