Europa y su pulsión de deuda

CAMBRIDGE – Los líderes de la zona del euro continúan debatiendo sobre la mejor forma de revigorizar el crecimiento económico y los franceses e italianos ahora sostienen que se debe relajar el rígido tratado del «compacto fiscal». Mientras tanto, los líderes de los países miembros del norte de la zona del euro continúan propugnando una implementación más seria de las reformas estructurales.

Lo ideal es que ambas partes logren lo que desean, pero resulta difícil visualizar un resultado final que no implique una significativa reestructuración o reprogramación de la deuda. La incapacidad de los políticos europeos para contemplar este escenario representa una enorme carga sobre el Banco Central Europeo.

Si bien hay muchas explicaciones sobre las demoras de la recuperación en la zona del euro, queda claro que el exceso de deuda, tanto pública como privada, ocupa un lugar preponderante. La participación de las deudas brutas de los hogares y las instituciones financieras en el ingreso nacional es mayor hoy que antes de la crisis financiera. La deuda corporativa no financiera solo ha disminuido ligeramente. Y la deuda gubernamental, por supuesto, aumentó bruscamente debido a los rescates de los bancos y a la pronunciada caída de los ingresos fiscales por la recesión.

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