Смертельное желание: долг Европы

КЭМБРИДЖ – Между лидерами еврозоны продолжаются переговоры на тему того, как лучше оживить экономический рост: французские и итальянские лидеры выдвигают мнение, что стоит ослабить жесткий «фискальный пакт» еврозоны. Однако лидеры северных стран-членов ЕС продолжают настаивать на более значительной реализации структурной реформы.

В лучшем случае, обе стороны получат то, что они хотели, но трудно предвидеть такой конечный итог, который не включает в себя значительную реструктуризацию задолженности или переноса сроков. Неспособность европейских политиков предположить и обсудить этот сценарий оказывает огромное бремя на Европейский центральный банк.

Хотя есть много объяснений для отстающего восстановления еврозоны, ясно одно: государственный и частный долг достиг угрожающих размеров. Общие долги частников и финансовых институтов как доля национального дохода на данный момент выше, чем они были до финансового кризиса. Нефинансовый корпоративный долг лишь незначительно упал. А государственный долг, конечно, резко возрос, благодаря спасению банков и резкому снижению налоговых поступлений, что сопутствовало рецессии.

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