Voglia Di Debito In Europa

CAMBRIDGE – I leader dell’Eurozona continuano a discutere sul modo migliore per rafforzare la crescita economica, con i dirigenti francesi e italiani che ora argomentano a favore di un allentamento del rigido “fiscal compact” della zona euro. Nel frattempo, i leader dei paesi nordici europei continuano a spingere per una più seria attuazione delle riforme strutturali.

In teoria, entrambe le parti avrebbero ragione, tuttavia è difficile vedere un esito che non comporti una significativa ristrutturazione o rinegoziazione del debito. L’incapacità dei politici europei di contemplare questo scenario impone un gravame enorme sulla Banca Centrale Europea.

Anche se ci sono molte spiegazioni per il ritardo nel recupero della zona euro, è chiaro che sta incombendo un’eccedenza di debito sia pubblico che privato. I debiti lordi delle famiglie e delle istituzioni finanziarie oggi rappresentano una quota del reddito nazionale maggiore di quella riscontrata prima della crisi finanziaria. Il debito delle aziende non finanziarie è sceso solo leggermente. E il debito pubblico, ovviamente, è notevolmente aumentato, a causa dei salvataggi bancari e di un forte declino, alimentato dalla recessione, delle entrate fiscali.

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