أوروبا وأمنية الديون

كمبريدج ــ لا زال زعماء منطقة اليورو يناقشون أفضل السبل لإنعاش النمو الاقتصادي، حيث يزعم قادة فرنسا وإيطاليا الآن ضرورة تخفيف قيود "الميثاق المالي". ومن ناحية أخرى، يواصل زعماء بلدان منطقة اليورو في شمال أوروبا ممارسة الضغوط المطالبة بتنفيذ الإصلاح البنيوي بطريقة أكثر جدية.

في الظروف المثالية، قد يكون بوسع كل من الجانبين تنفيذ رؤيته، ولكن من الصعب أن نرى فصلاً ختامياً لهذا الأمر لا ينطوي على إعادة هيكلة أو جدولة الديون بشكل كبير. والواقع أن عجز ساسة أوروبا عن التأمل في هذا السيناريو يفرض عِبئاً كبيراً على البنك المركزي الأوروبي.

ورغم التفسيرات العديدة لتأخر تعافي منطقة اليورو، فمن الواضح أن الأعباء المترتبة على الديون في كل من القطاعين العام والخاص تبدو ثقيلة للغاية. فاليوم أصبح إجمالي ديون الأسر والمؤسسات المالية أعلى كثيراً كحصة من الدخل الوطني مقارنة بما كان عليه قبل الأزمة المالية. ولم تنخفض ديون الشركات غير المالية إلا بشكل طفيف. وبالطبع، ارتفعت ديون الحكومة بشكل حاد، نظراً لعمليات إنقاذ البنوك والانحدار الحاد في عائدات الضرائب نتيجة للركود.

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