让名义利率为零的下限羁绊货币政策早已毫无道理。一个简单又优美的解决方案是逐步向完全电子化的货币靠拢,使用电子货币后,支付利息(正或负)只要按个按钮就行了。而若使用纸币——特别是大面额钞票——实际上弊大于利,货币现代化可谓姗姗来迟。使用电子货币,央行能够如同现在所做的那样稳定通胀。(花旗集团首席经济学家威廉·布伊特(Willem Buiter)给出了多种解决纸币造成的不便的方法,但取消纸币是最简单的。)

其次,还有一种不那么优美的办法,即让央行将目标通胀率从今天的标准水平2%提高到仍属温和水平的4%。将通胀目标永久提高到4%的方案首先由IMF首席经济学家奥利佛·布兰查德(Olivier Blanchard)在一篇有趣又深邃的论文中提出,并获得了其他许多学者的支持,包括最近的保罗·克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)。不幸的是,实现平稳而有说服力地向新目标转变可能是无法实现的任务。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now