Tim Brinton

Профицит дебатов

КЕМБРИДЖ – Когда Министерство финансов США недавно присоединилось к хору критики в адрес хронического профицита текущего счета Германии, оно особо выделило свое глубокое несогласие с тем, что конкретно нужно сделать по этому поводу, если это вообще нужно. Критики хотят, чтобы Германия увеличила свой вклад в мировой спрос за счет увеличения импорта и снижения экспорта. Немцы считают поддержание сильного баланса жизненно важным для стабилизирующей роли своей страны в Европе.

Аргументы обеих сторон, безусловно, получат широкую огласку во время весенней встречи Международного валютного фонда и Всемирного банка. К сожалению, на дебатах зачастую больше говорят об идеологии, нежели о фактах.

Разница между тем, что страна экспортирует и что импортирует, может отражать бесчисленные факторы, включая бизнес-циклы, демографию, возможности инвестирования и диверсификацию экономики. Она также может отражать склонность правительства к бюджетному профициту; в конце концов, профицит текущего счета, согласно определению, является превышением государственных и частных сбережений над инвестициями.

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