Tim Brinton

Un excédent sujet à controverse

CAMBRIDGE – Lorsque le Trésor américain s'est récemment joint au chœur des critiques sur l'excédent du compte courant chronique de l'Allemagne, il a souligné le profond désaccord sur ce qui devrait être fait à ce sujet. Les critiques veulent que l'Allemagne augmente sa contribution à la demande mondiale par davantage d'importations et moins d'exportations. Les Allemands considèrent le maintien de la solidité de leur bilan comme un élément essentiel au rôle stabilisateur de leur pays en Europe.

Les arguments des deux camps seront certainement exposés en détail lors des réunions de printemps du Fonds Monétaire International et de la Banque mondiale. Malheureusement, le débat est souvent plus informé par l'idéologie que par les faits.

La différence entre ce qu'un pays exporte et importe peut refléter une multitude de facteurs, y compris les cycles économiques, la démographie, les opportunités d'investissement et de diversification économique. Cela peut aussi refléter le penchant du gouvernement à dégager des excédents budgétaires : après tout, l'excédent de compte courant, par définition, est l'excès de l'épargne publique et privée par rapport aux investissements.

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