Tim Brinton

争论盈余

美国剑桥—美国财政部最近提高了对德国长期经常项目盈余的批评声音,这凸显出关于如何应对这一问题的深刻分歧。批评者想要德国增加进口、减少出口,从而为全球需求做出更大贡献。德国人则认为维护其强劲的国际收支盈余对于德国在欧洲扮演稳定者角色至关重要。

双方观点都必定会在国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行的春季会议上获得充分的支持。不幸的是,这场争论总是太多地披上了意识形态色彩,而太少关注事实。

一国出口和进口之间的差额可以反映诸多原因,包括商业周期、人口结构、投资机会和经济多样化等。它还可能反映了政府的财政盈余偏好;毕竟,经常项目盈余的定义是公共和私人储蓄超出投资的部分。

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