Croissance anémique dans les pays avancés : déclin séculaire ou conséquence de la  crise ?

CAMBRIDGE – La croissance anémique des pays avancés est-elle le signe d'un déclin séculaire à long terme ou bien la simple conséquence d'une profonde crise financière systémique ? Problème crucial : faut-il apporter une réponse définitive à cette question pour accélérer le rythme de la reprise économique ?

Lors d'une conférence récente du FMI, l'ancien secrétaire au Trésor américain, Lawrence Summers, a déclaré que les causes fondamentales de la faiblesse de la croissance actuelle sont antérieures à la crise financière mondiale. Il a souligné le besoin d'investir davantage dans les infrastructures - un sentiment partagé par la plupart des économistes, notamment si l'on fait référence aux investissements productifs.

D'aucuns s'inquiètent ainsi d'un possible déclin séculaire, même si la grande majorité des économistes insiste sur l'offre plutôt que sur la demande. Ainsi, selon l'économiste Jeffrey Sachs l'économie américaine est confrontée à une pléthore d'obstacles structurels - tels les délocalisations, l'inadaptation de la main d'œuvre et la vétusté des infrastructures - qui s'opposent à une croissance durable.

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