Хорошее управление и результаты в экономике

БЕРЛИН – Дебаты о перспективах роста развивающихся стран сейчас в полном разгаре. Пессимисты указывают на такую опасность, как поворот вспять потоков частного капитала из-за сокращения закупок долгосрочных активов ФРС США, а также трудности в проведении так называемых структурных реформ второго и третьего поколения и ограничения, связанные с необходимостью «подтягивать» темпы роста в непроизводственной сфере. Оптимисты доказывают, что потенциал для быстрого роста все еще огромный, благодаря улучшению макроэкономических основ и ожидаемому распространению лучших технологий в развивающемся мире.

Так кто же прав?

Недавние события еще раз указывают на важность хорошего управления и чутких политических систем – тема, не раз обсуждавшаяся в исследованиях, посвященных долгосрочному экономическому росту. Страны, которые долгое время казались успешными, такие как Турция или Таиланд, внезапно столкнулись с препятствиями, относящимися к области управления и способности добиться политического компромисса внутри страны. Возникающие при этом «разброд и шатания», без сомнения, представляют более весомую угрозу, чем действия ФРС.

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