Gute Regierungsführung und Wirtschaftsleistung

BERLIN – Die Debatte über die Wachstumsaussichten in den Schwellenländern ist momentan in vollem Gange. Die Pessimisten betonen die befürchtete Umkehr privater Kapitalströme aufgrund der Rücknahme der Ankäufe langfristiger Vermögenswerte durch die amerikanische Notenbank Federal Reserve sowie die Schwierigkeiten der so genannten Strukturreformen der zweiten und dritten Generation und die Grenzen des „Aufholwachstums“ außerhalb des Fertigungssektors. Optimisten hingegen argumentieren, dass das Potenzial für rasches Wachstum weiterhin immens sei. Dies aufgrund der besseren makroökonomischen Fundamentaldaten sowie der Aussicht, dass moderne Spitzentechnologien in allen Schwellenländern Verbreitung finden.

Wer hat nun recht?

Die Ereignisse der letzten Zeit demonstrieren einmal mehr die Bedeutung guter Regierungsführung und aufgeschlossener politischer Systeme - ein gängiges Thema auch in Studien über langfristiges Wirtschaftswachstum. Länder wie die Türkei oder Thailand, die über lange Zeit Erfolg zu haben schienen, stehen plötzlich vor Hindernissen im Zusammenhang mit Regierungsführung und der Fähigkeit, auf nationaler Ebene politische Kompromisse zu schließen. Die daraus resultierende Spaltungen und Fehlfunktionen stellen mit Sicherheit eine größere Bedrohung dar als die Rücknahme der Anleihenkäufe durch die Fed.

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