Bonne gouvernance et performance économique

BERLIN – Le débat sur les perspectives de croissance des pays émergents bat actuellement son plein. Les pessimistes soulignent leur crainte d'une inversion des flux de capitaux privés, en raison de la baisse des achats d'actifs à long terme de la Réserve fédérale américaine, ainsi que des difficultés des deuxième et troisième générations de réformes structurelles et des limites de la « croissance de rattrapage » hors du secteur de l'industrie. Les optimistes affirment que le potentiel de croissance rapide reste immense, en raison de meilleurs fondamentaux macroéconomiques et de la promesse de meilleures pratiques technologiques qui se diffusent dans les pays émergents.

Qui a raison ?

Les événements récents montrent une fois de plus l'importance d'une bonne gouvernance et de systèmes politiques prompts à réagir, un thème familier dans les études sur la croissance économique à long terme. Les pays qui ont paru prospères pendant une longue période, comme la Turquie ou la Thaïlande, semblent tout à coup confrontés à des obstacles liés à la gouvernance et à leur capacité à établir des compromis politiques internes. La division et le dysfonctionnement qui en résultent sont certainement de plus lourdes menaces que la baisse de la Fed.

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