良好治理与经济成效

发自柏林——对于新兴市场国家增长前景的讨论如今已经呈现两极化。悲观主义者们对美联储收缩长期资产购买规模所导致的私人资金恐慌性回流忧心不已,再担心所谓第二代和第三代结构改革的艰巨性以及在制造业以外实现“赶超性”增长的局限性。乐观主义者则认为还存在极大的快速增长空间,因为宏观经济基本面已经大有改善,而且最先进技术也被广泛引入各国,带来更可靠的前景。

那谁才是对的?

最近的事件再一次显示出了良好治理和灵活反应政治体制的重要性,这也是研究长期经济增长中的一个常见议题。像土耳其或者泰国这类国家看似长期繁荣,但突然就遭遇了与治理以及实现国内政治妥协有关的桎梏。因此而导致的派系分裂以及国家失能很显然也要比美联储的收缩威胁更大。

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