Der Große Krieg und Weltordnungspolitik

ISTANBUL – Heuer jährt sich der Ausbruch des Ersten Weltkriegs - und wohl auch das schlimmste Jahr der Menschheitsgeschichte - zum 100. Mal. Aber ist die Welt ein Jahrhundert danach auch sicherer?

Der Erste Weltkrieg forderte nicht nur beinahe 40 Millionen Tote, er kann auch als Vorläufer des Zweiten Weltkriegs betrachtet werden. Denn wäre die Hyperinflation der 1920er Jahre in Deutschland – eine direkte Folge des Krieges – verhindert worden, wäre Hitler wohl nie an die Macht gekommen und der Zweite Weltkrieg hätte nicht stattgefunden. Doch stattdessen  setzte die Ermordung des österreichischen Erzherzogs Franz Ferdinand am 28. Juni 1914 in Sarajevo eine Serie des Blutvergießens in Gang, im Zuge derer bis 1945 beinahe 100 Millionen Menschen den Tod fanden und menschliches Leid in vorher ungeahntem Ausmaß verursacht wurde.

Natürlich haben Generationen von Historikern die Ursachen der Weltkriege minutiös recherchiert und ihre Schlussfolgerungen elegant präsentiert. Diese Aufzeichnungen sollten für Ökonomen und politische Entscheidungsträger von heute Anlass sein, über die schwierig zu lösenden Zielkonflikte zwischen Effizienz und Stabilität im Hinblick auf Weltordnungspolitik, also Global Governance, nachzudenken.

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