Guerre de 1914 et gouvernance mondiale actuelle

ISTANBUL – Cette nouvelle année marquera la centième commémoration de l’explosion de la Première Guerre mondiale – conflit sans doute parmi les plus effroyables de toute l’histoire humaine. Un siècle plus tard, peut-on considérer notre monde comme désormais plus sûr ?

La Première Guerre mondiale a non seulement ôté la vie à près de 40 millions de personnes, mais s’est également révélée source de la Seconde. Si l’hyperinflation allemande des années 1920 – conséquence directe de la guerre – avait été évitée, Hitler aurait tout à fait pu ne pas accéder au pouvoir, et la Seconde Guerre mondiale n’aurait peut-être pas eu lieu. Malheureusement, l’assassinat de l’archiduc François-Ferdinand d’Autriche à Sarajevo, le 28 juin 1914, sera le détonateur d’un enchaînement d’effusions de sang qui aboutiront jusqu’en 1945 à la mort de quelque 100 millions d’individus, et provoqueront une souffrance humaine d’une ampleur jusqu’alors inimaginable.

Bien entendu, plusieurs générations d’historiens ont depuis méticuleusement étudié les origines des différents conflits mondiaux, rendant avec talent un certain nombre de conclusions, et il serait bon que les enseignements de l’histoire incitent les économistes et responsables politiques actuels à réfléchir sur la question du difficile équilibre entre efficience et résilience caractérisant l’exercice de la gouvernance mondiale.

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