大战和全球治理

伊斯坦布尔—今年是第一次世界大战爆发一百周年。一百年前的今天可能是人类历史上最糟糕的一天。一个世纪之后的今天,世界有没有变得更安全?

一战不但带走了近4000万人的生命,也酝酿了第二次世界大战。毕竟,如果德国可以避免20世纪20年代的恶性通货膨胀(一战的直接后果之一),那么希特勒就不会上台,二战也可能不会发生。相反,1914年6月28日刺杀奥地利斐迪南大公的行为造成了到1945年才最终结束、让近1亿人失去生命的冤冤相报,人类遭遇了此前无法想象的灾难。

当然,历代历史学家呕心沥血地寻找着世界大战的起源,并漂亮地写出各自的结论。历史应该刺激今天的经济学家和决策者深思全球治理问题上效率和鲁棒之间的艰难权衡。

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