Cómo reacondicionar el contrato social raído de Europa

WASHINGTON, DC – Durante gran parte del comienzo de 2014, la eurozona parecía estar en un estado de recuperación -débil e inestable, pero de todas maneras real-. En abril, el Fondo Monetario Internacional estimó que el crecimiento general del PBI alcanzaría el 1,2% este año, con una lenta disminución del desempleo, comparado con su previsión anterior de un crecimiento del 1%. Habiendo desaparecido la amenaza de tasas de interés insustentablemente elevadas en los países de la periferia de la eurozona, el camino hacia una recuperación moderada estaba supuestamente despejado, y lo que vendría después sería una cierta aceleración del crecimiento en 2015.

Si bien es importante no reaccionar de manera exagerada ante las cifras trimestrales, los datos recientes, así como algunos de los datos revisados para el primer trimestre, son profundamente desalentadores. El pesimismo de hace dos años ha regresado -y con justa razón.

Italia atraviesa una recesión indiscutida y está lejos de mostrar los tan esperados signos de vitalidad. El crecimiento francés es cercano a cero. Hasta el PBI de Alemania decayó en términos trimestrales en la primera mitad del año. Finlandia, un defensor acérrimo de las políticas firmes de austeridad, está en rojo en la primera mitad del año.

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