Реконструкция обветшалого социального договора Европы

ВАШИНГТОН, ОКРУГ КОЛУМБИЯ – Почти все начало 2014 года еврозона, казалось, находится в состоянии восстановления – слабого и неустойчивого, но, тем не менее, реального. Согласно апрельской оценке Международного валютного фонда, общий рост ВВП в этом году достигнет 1,2% при медленно снижающейся безработице – подъем в сравнении с его предыдущим прогнозом роста в 1%. После исчезновения угрозы неустойчиво высоких процентных ставок в странах периферии еврозоны путь к умеренному восстановлению предположительно стал открыт, и он повлечет за собой некоторое ускорение темпов роста в 2015 году.

И хотя важно не слишком бурно реагировать на квартальные показатели, последние данные, а также некоторые пересмотренные данные за первый квартал глубоко разочаровывают. Пессимизм двухлетней давности вернулся – и не без оснований.

Италия находится в самой настоящей рецессии и далека от проявления желанных признаков жизнеспособности. Французский рост близок к нулю. Даже ВВП Германии в первом полугодии снизился в квартальном выражении. Финляндия, убежденный сторонник твердой политики жесткой экономии, в первой половине года оказалась в минусе.

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