改造欧洲破坏的社会契约

华盛顿—在2014年初的大部分时间里,欧元区似乎进入了复苏状态——疲软又踉跄,但确实是复苏。4月,国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计今年总体GDP增长将达1.2%,失业率将缓慢下降,较此前的预测(增长1%)有所提高。欧元区外围高得不可持续的利率开始下降,人们因此认为温和复苏的大门已经打开,增长将在2015年出现加速。

尽管对季度数据不必过度反应,但最新数据以及一些一季度的修正数据令人大失所望。两年前的悲观情绪开始回潮——理由相当充分。

意大利已经陷入了彻底的衰退,并且远远没有表现出人们所盼望的活力信号。法国增长率接近于零,甚至德国GDP季度表现也在今年上半年有所退步。紧缩政策的坚决支持者芬兰今年上半年更是出现了负增长。

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