不同的赶超速度

巴黎—如今,发达经济体需求不振正在影响亚洲和拉美大国在内的新兴经济体的增长,据此,许多人指出收入趋同时代已经走向了结束。大错特错。

正如我此前所指出的,新兴国家实际平均收入向发达国家趋近的总体趋势可能会一直持续到21世纪20年代。这一过程始于20世纪80年代,其势头一直不减,只在1997—1998年亚洲金融危机期间略有衰退。趋同的速度在2008—2009年全球金融危机期间及稍后有所加快:2008—2012年,人均收入增长率的总体平均差异扩大到四个百分点以上,而二十年前为两个百分点。随着发达经济体的复苏(不管其势头多么虚弱),增长差异可能再度缩小,也许会回到两个百分点的水平,但仍是相当可观的稳定趋同速度。

照此看,这决非新兴市场“派对结束”。在过去的这个夏天,美联储主席伯南克暗示可能“逐渐收缩”美联储量化宽松政策,这在几个较脆弱的新兴市场引起了“迷你危机”,从而导致一些人迫不及待地放出了“派对结束”论。从汇率和资产价格角度看,这些经济体纷纷收复了迷你危机中的失地。

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