¿Un gran desmoronamiento?

ESTAMBUL – Este mes, centenario del estallido de la primera guerra mundial, constituye una oportunidad para reflexionar sobre los grandes riesgos. Como advirtió recientemente Michael Spence, el cada vez mayor déficit de seguridad del orden internacional, que refleja el debilitamiento de la gobernación mundial actual, está volviéndose rápidamente el mayor riesgo que afronta la economía mundial. Hace un siglo se podría haber hecho la misma afirmación.

El 30 de julio de 1914, buques de guerra austríacos bombardearon Belgrado, cinco semanas después del asesinato del Archiduque Franz Ferdinand en Sarajevo. A mediados de agosto, el mundo estaba en guerra. El armisticio acordado al cabo de cuatro años, después de que hubieran muerto veinte millones de personas, representó tan sólo un interludio antes del horror de la segunda guerra mundial.

En los años anteriores a agosto de 1914, hasta el asesinato del Archiduque, la economía mundial funcionó relativamente bien: el comercio aumentó a escala mundial, los mercados financieros parecían sólidos y la comunidad empresarial hacía caso omiso de los problemas políticos por considerarlos pasajeros o irrelevantes. Fue un desmoronamientos político que dio paso a tres decenios terribles para la economía mundial.

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