Ein großer Zusammenbruch?

ISTANBUL – Dieser Monat – in dem sich der Ausbruch des Ersten Weltkrieges zum einhundertsten Mal jährt – ist ein günstiger Zeitpunkt, um über große Risiken nachzudenken. Wie Michael Spence jüngst warnte, entwickelt sich das wachsende Sicherheitsdefizit der internationalen Ordnung, das jedwede globale Ordnungspolitik schwächt, rasch zum größten Risiko für die Weltwirtschaft.  Das gleiche Argument hätte man auch vor hundert Jahren vorbringen können.

Am 30. Juli 1914, fünf Wochen nach der Ermordung von Erzherzog Franz Ferdinand in Sarajewo nahmen österreichische Kriegsschiffe Belgrad unter Beschuss. Mitte August befand sich die Welt im Krieg. Der vier Jahre später nach dem Tod von etwa 20 Millionen Menschen beschlossene Waffenstillstand entpuppte sich lediglich als Intermezzo bis zum Beginn der Schrecken des Zweiten Weltkriegs.  

In den Jahren vor August 1914, bis zum Attentat auf den Erzherzog, entwickelte sich die Weltwirtschaft relativ gut: der Handel expandierte weltweit, die Finanzmärkte erschienen gesund und in Wirtschaftskreisen tat man politische Probleme entweder als vorübergehend oder irrelevant ab.  Es war ein politischer Zusammenbruch, der zu drei schrecklichen Jahrzehnten für die Weltwirtschaft führte.

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