Le monde au bord de la rupture ?

ISTANBUL – En ce mois de commémoration du centenaire de la Première Guerre mondiale, il apparaît nécessaire de réfléchir aux risques majeurs qui se présentent aujourd’hui au monde. Comme l’a récemment fait valoir Michael Spence, le creusement du déficit de sécurité dans l’ordre international – illustration de l’affaiblissement de ce qu’il nous reste de gouvernance mondiale – est rapidement devenu la plus grande menace pour l’économie mondiale. Or, un constat similaire aurait pu être formulé il y a un siècle.

Le 30 juillet 1914, les navires de guerre autrichiens pilonnaient Belgrade, cinq semaines après l’assassinat de l’archiduc François-Ferdinand à Sarajevo. Quinze jours plus tard, le monde entier était entré en guerre. L’armistice ne sera conclu que quatre ans plus tard, le conflit ayant alors coûté la vie à près de 20 millions d’individus, soit malheureusement une simple préface des horreurs de la Seconde Guerre mondiale.

Au cours des années ayant précédé août 1914, soit jusqu’à l’assassinat de l’archiduc, l’économie mondiale connut une période relativement favorable : les échanges s’étendaient à l’international, les marchés financiers apparaissaient en bonne santé, et le monde des affaires ne faisaient que peu de cas de problématiques politiques considérées soit comme temporaires, soit comme indifférentes. Ce n’est qu’à l’issue d’une rupture politique majeure que l’économie mondiale sera plongée dans le désastre, et cela pour trois décennies.

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