永久坠落还是暂时危机?

发自华盛顿特区——自年初以来,新一轮的质疑声淹没了新兴市场,导致这些国家的资产价格下跌。第一波冲击始于2013年春季,当时美联储宣布将开始“逐渐削减”每月的长期资产收购数额(即所谓的量化宽松)。如今削减如约而至,新兴市场的熊市也再度降临。

其中压力最大的是所谓“脆弱五国”——巴西、印度、印尼,南非以及土耳其(1月份爆发小型危机的阿根廷并未计算在内)。但忧虑情绪也已蔓延到了其他新兴市场国家。美联储逐渐缩减量化宽松的行动是否在今年催生更多的新兴市场危机?相比于导致1997年亚洲金融危机或其他突发性资本外流事件,当今的状况究竟处于何种程度?

新兴市场的牛市表明大多数主要中等收入国家都已经切实降低了自身的公共负债/GDP比率,并使之获得了过去所缺少的财政空间。但无论是1994年墨西哥的“龙舌兰危机”还是1997亚洲金融风暴都并非由公共负债所引发。在两起事件中,在面对资本外流时试图维护固定汇率的举措才是主要原因,而2001年二月土耳其货币崩盘前一年的情况也是如此。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/YYsNo1F/zh;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now