永久坠落还是暂时危机?

发自华盛顿特区——自年初以来,新一轮的质疑声淹没了新兴市场,导致这些国家的资产价格下跌。第一波冲击始于2013年春季,当时美联储宣布将开始“逐渐削减”每月的长期资产收购数额(即所谓的量化宽松)。如今削减如约而至,新兴市场的熊市也再度降临。

其中压力最大的是所谓“脆弱五国”——巴西、印度、印尼,南非以及土耳其(1月份爆发小型危机的阿根廷并未计算在内)。但忧虑情绪也已蔓延到了其他新兴市场国家。美联储逐渐缩减量化宽松的行动是否在今年催生更多的新兴市场危机?相比于导致1997年亚洲金融危机或其他突发性资本外流事件,当今的状况究竟处于何种程度?

新兴市场的牛市表明大多数主要中等收入国家都已经切实降低了自身的公共负债/GDP比率,并使之获得了过去所缺少的财政空间。但无论是1994年墨西哥的“龙舌兰危机”还是1997亚洲金融风暴都并非由公共负债所引发。在两起事件中,在面对资本外流时试图维护固定汇率的举措才是主要原因,而2001年二月土耳其货币崩盘前一年的情况也是如此。

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