永久坠落还是暂时危机？

Feb 17, 2014 Kemal Derviş

发自华盛顿特区——自年初以来，新一轮的质疑声淹没了新兴市场，导致这些国家的资产价格下跌。第一波冲击始于2013年春季，当时美联储宣布将开始“逐渐削减”每月的长期资产收购数额（即所谓的量化宽松）。如今削减如约而至，新兴市场的熊市也再度降临。

其中压力最大的是所谓“脆弱五国”——巴西、印度、印尼，南非以及土耳其（1月份爆发小型危机的阿根廷并未计算在内）。但忧虑情绪也已蔓延到了其他新兴市场国家。美联储逐渐缩减量化宽松的行动是否在今年催生更多的新兴市场危机？相比于导致1997年亚洲金融危机或其他突发性资本外流事件，当今的状况究竟处于何种程度？

新兴市场的牛市表明大多数主要中等收入国家都已经切实降低了自身的公共负债/GDP比率，并使之获得了过去所缺少的财政空间。但无论是1994年墨西哥的“龙舌兰危机”还是1997亚洲金融风暴都并非由公共负债所引发。在两起事件中，在面对资本外流时试图维护固定汇率的举措才是主要原因，而2001年二月土耳其货币崩盘前一年的情况也是如此。

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Craig Stevenson Feb 20, 2014

Kemal:

I think you are wrong to state, simply, that assets will be imperiled when interest rates rise, I am not sure that is the case. But, am sure that assets have not merely risen to extraordinary heights during/after the GFC; rather, that this occurred during the previous period of expansion, and was likely exacerbated during the downturn from the story of delinked emerging markets and rising powers. It points to the quality of growth during the 2000's in which the global gdp doubled and the likely long-term flimsy nature of it. Such portends a multitude of things:

one, that while the global system that was created in the aftermath of WWII was wildly successful if leaving much to be desired for meeting our universal and absolute ideals, much more need be done to advance the causes of global development

two, the confused, listing, and aimless immediate post cold war era, that resulted in commitments to lessen poverty, need to evolve to something that ensures less free-riding among wealthy nations, rising powers, and developing countries alike. The disempowering dogma of critical post-colonialism, and neo-imperialism, scholarship, and their associated ideals and perspectives need to be addressed to place countries in the proper frame of the world we inhabit, not merely to run around in circles of what we would like it to be. So the confusion of the early post cold war era that led to the renewed drive for global development is to be continued, but excuses for free-ridership while observers mount their mighty steads of their unreal preferences need be subsumed to pragmatic responses relative to the intertwined world that we inhabit, which can advance standards of livings over time, but which can be interrupted if time-frames are unreal. If one were to plant hardwood forests for harvesting, one must realize that it takes a lifetime to build mighty oaks, not 15 years to solve poverty that has existed for millennia under conditions of much lessor population and greater material abundance.

three, that the state led development model, which is trade diversionary, and reliant on the ballooning of balance sheets, can not be done more broadly in the world economy, and is likely needed to be addressed as discussions of governance advance, we should not sit idly by as some regions stress the boundaries of an open trading regime while others languish due to the manipulations of markets for internal development goals which are intertwined with global capital, trade and development structures more broadly than the parochial interests of some large powers, despite how humiliated they keep telling their people they should be.

this is more broadly the case regionally, yet, the world is now more committed to development, and its participants more numerous. the rationale and desire for development is broadly felt, the excuse for subsumption of global development to the parochial internal needs derived of revisionist, even true, histories, can not delimit the trajectory of broader based development required for global stability in an era of super-empowered human's. Such, has been the case, to greater degrees since, the planting of crops and domestication of animals before the time of written history.
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Mazhar Can Feb 18, 2014

A clear and enlightening piece by Dervis. However, there still remains 2 important caveats to make:

1) Although an overall emerging-market crisis could be unlikely this year, it is conceivable to experience enduring strains here and there. This comes from the fact that FED tapering has the non-negligible possibility of inciting hitherto-absent volatility in EM assets, and this may easily lead to material sell-offs in EM markets with more depth (such as Poland, Turkey, South Africa and Hungary among others) due to market illiquidity elsewhere.

2) It is also hard to argue that EM countries have delivered on structural reform front when the time was ripe. It remains to be seen whether recent Chinese blueprint will materialize in the end and it is well possible that there may be a reversal in consumption's weight in GDP or weakness in current account surplus this year. Also, Turkey - the most vulnerable country to capital outflows - squandered its chance to deliver supply-side reforms - in the aftermath of secular improvements brought by Dervis's IMF programme . All done was an exclusive demand management mainly by the central bank and the growth model was unfortunately disoriented by a government-led construction boom. So, the bottom line is that although a full-scale EM crisis is not likely as Dervis clearly points out, there are genuine candidates on the table who are about to feel the pinch (more).
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永久坠落还是暂时危机？

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