北欧对世界经济的拖累

马德里—近几年来,中国的经常项目赤字——自2000年以来平均每年可达近2200亿美元——招致世界其他国家的猛烈批评。但德国的盈余与中国规模相当——自1999年引入欧元以来平均每年1700亿美元——却一直没有引起多少关注,直到最近才有所改变。

人们指出,区别就在于货币联盟。只要欧元区作为一个整体相对平衡,德国的盈余就被视为无关紧要——正如(比如)得克萨斯州的盈余从来不会被认为是美国的问题。相反,中国的盈余被视为全球失衡的源头之一。

作为整体的货币联盟的经常项目盈余或赤字可以预期带来汇率影响,从这一点上看,区别对待中国和德国是正确的。此外,与中国不同,德国不再拥有可以根据经常项目盈余调整的“国家”汇率。这些因素——以及缺少国家内地区的贸易数据——导致经济学家很少考虑国家内部的盈余或赤字。

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