Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev addressed the Astana Club Astana Times

身处不确定世界的年轻国家

阿拉木图—11月中旬,哈萨克斯坦主办了第三次“阿斯塔纳俱乐部”年会。阿斯塔纳俱乐部是一个新成立的国际商界领袖、政治家、媒体代表和其他专家就“影响欧亚全体国家的关键问题”进行探讨的独立和中立的平台。它是哈萨克斯坦过去二十年来外交政策成果的集中体现,如今,哈萨克斯坦外交政策正面临前所未有的考验。

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今年阿斯塔纳俱乐部的与会者规格高且多样化。其中包括来自欧洲、亚洲、美国和中东的领先智库代表;一些前国家首脑,如土耳其的居尔和斯洛文尼亚的图尔克;前欧盟委员费雷罗-沃尔德纳(Benita Ferrero-Waldner);印度议会议员沙鲁尔(Shashi Tharoor)以及俄罗斯一频道(Channel One Russia)首席执行官恩斯特(Konstantin Ernst)。

讨论在纳扎尔巴耶夫中心举行,这是一座美轮美奂的未来主义建筑,由英国著名建筑师福斯特(Norman Foster)设计。会议的情景很像是《星球大战》中的星系议会,与会者坐在一张大桌子旁,四周环绕着欧亚地图,讨论新兴国际秩序、大国对立、制裁战争、核扩散和地区一体化等议题。

阿斯塔纳俱乐部的讨论既是追求地位(status-seeking)的公关活动,也提供公共品,这一组合也是哈萨克斯坦外交政策的长期特征。比如,每三年,哈萨克斯坦都要举办一次世界和传统宗教领导人会议(Congress of Leaders of World and Traditional Religions),为此,哈萨克斯坦委托福斯特设计了另一座美轮美奂的未来主义建筑——和平和妥协宫(Palace of Peace and Reconciliation)

哈萨克斯坦领导层还致力于让这个国家成为国际不扩散运动的先锋。在刚刚过去的10月份,首都阿斯塔纳举行了叙利亚危机谈判,来自叙利亚政府和一些武装反对集团的代表出席了会议——尽管哈萨克斯坦和叙利亚的悲剧相隔万里之遥。

这一方针在1991年哈萨克斯坦独立后不久便开始实施。当时,哈萨克斯坦效仿欧洲安全与合作会议(即现在的欧安组织),举办了亚洲相互协调和建设信心措施会议(Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia)。这体现出哈萨克斯坦对让它得以在1991年诞生的自由世界秩序的感激之情——当时,这一秩序因为苏联解体而大大增强。

哈萨克斯坦从未满足于被自由世界秩序接受。它希望成为一个典范——不仅仅加入到多边机制和组织,还要做出自己的贡献。

因此,哈萨克斯坦寻求成为欧安组织主席国(在2010年如愿),并克服万难,最终成功被选为2017—2018年联合国安理会非常人理事国。哈萨克斯坦的目标是最终加入发达经济体行列,进入经合组织。

但哈萨克斯坦努力加入的国际社会正在经历更本性变革。哈萨克斯坦的强大邻邦俄罗斯用入侵乌克兰、非法吞并克里米亚并在其东部的顿巴斯发动战争的举动让地区陷入不安。

令问题更加棘手的是,特朗普治下的美国似乎无法继续遏制俄罗斯或支持其一手创造的1945年后的自由世界秩序。特朗普依靠群众的愤怒赢得权力,因此你甚至不能期望他会遵守规则。

类似地,欧盟也受制于源自反建制和民族主义情绪激昂的内部政治挑战——包括与英国之间的退欧谈判。中国试图填补全球领导力的空缺——并且出人意料地受到了世界其他国家的高度评价。

这些结构性变化足以让造成变化的大国感到震动;对小国来说,这些变化更令它们无所适从。一些人乐于见到西方霸权的衰落,但事实是,对于像哈萨克斯坦这样的国家,不可预见性就意味着危险。新兴强国较少受到国际人权规范和公约的约束,因此不太可能努力执行这些规范和公约,这绝不是有利的情况。

哈萨克斯坦获得独立时正逢国际合作、自由贸易和集体安全大受鼓舞的时期,长期以来,它也致力于支持这些原则。尽管和域内其他年轻国家一样,哈萨克斯坦政府在推动民主和人权方面有所落后,但至少没有完全压制它们。

如今,哈萨克斯坦要坚持到底。但如果现在的趋势持续下去,它可能失去方向。

http://prosyn.org/GMGFHyc/zh;

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