“L”恐慌

华盛顿—过去几年来,经济学家一直在用字母表描述期待已久的复苏——一开始是乐观的“V”,接着是不那么乐观的“U”,最后是令人绝望的“W”。但如今经济学界开始出现更深的焦虑,我将此称为“L”型复苏恐慌。

从过去的令人失望的五年看,2013年对发达经济体来说并不坏。欧元区从技术上走出了衰退,美国的失业率也比前几年低,日本也在长期萎靡和2011年地震和海啸冲击之后开始觉醒。

但如果透过表现看本质,那么很显然我们仍在悬崖边缘徘徊。今年3季度,GDP同比出现了收缩,不仅希腊、葡萄牙等出了名的疲软国是如此,意大利、西班牙、荷兰和捷克也是如此。法国和瑞典等国的GDP增长则赶不上人口,这意味着人均收入下降。

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