Infrastruktur als eigene Anlageklasse

PEKING – Nach mehreren Monaten unbefriedigender Wirtschaftsindikatoren hat der chinesische Staatsrat ein „Mini-Stimulus“-Paket enthüllt, das den Bau von Sozialwohnungen und die Erweiterung von Bahnstrecken vorsieht. Die Entscheidung fiel einen Monat nach Premierminister Li Keqiangs Erklärung, dass China sein Ziel jährlichen Wachstums auf „etwa 7,5%“ ansetzt – ebenso wie letztes Jahr. Die Konsequenz liegt auf der Hand: Auch wenn China langfristig ein konsumgetriebenes Wachstum anstrebt, wird das Land – zumindest kurzfristig – auch weiterhin auf die Infrastruktur als Schlüsseltriebkraft für die Wirtschaft setzen.

Natürlich ist China nicht die einzige Volkswirtschaft, die zur Wachstumsförderung auf Infrastrukturinvestitionen setzt. Laut Schätzungen der Weltbank wurde fast die Hälfte der Beschleunigung des Wirtschaftswachstums im Afrika südlich der Sahara von 2001-2005 durch Investitionen in die Infrastruktur erreicht.

Demnach entspricht eine 10%ige Steigerung dieser Investitionen einem BIP-Wachstum von 1%. Solche Investitionen schaffen auch Arbeitsplätze, sowohl kurzfristig durch Steigerung der Nachfrage nach Material und Arbeitskräften als auch langfristig durch größeren Bedarf an Dienstleistungen. Beispielsweise führen jede 100 Millionen USD, die im ländlichen Raum in den Unterhalt von Straßen investiert werden, zu schätzungsweise 25.000-50.000 neuen Arbeitsplätzen.

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