Le cas d'espèce de l'infrastructure

PEKIN – Après les chiffres décevants des indicateurs économiques pendant plusieurs mois, le Conseil d'État chinois a dévoilé un « mini-paquet de relance » sur la construction de logements sociaux et l'expansion du réseau ferroviaire. La décision est arrivée un mois après la déclaration du Premier ministre Li Keqiang, d'après laquelle la Chine aurait fixé son objectif annuel de croissance à « environ 7,5% », soit le même objectif que l'année dernière. La conclusion est facile à tirer : alors que la croissance axée sur la consommation demeure un objectif à long terme pour la Chine, l'infrastructure va continuer au moins à court terme à servir de moteur de l'économie chinoise.

Bien sûr, la Chine n'est pas la seule économie tributaire de ses investissements dans les infrastructures pour étayer sa croissance économique. La Banque mondiale estime que les investissements dans les infrastructures ont représenté près de la moitié de l'accélération de la croissance économique de l'Afrique subsaharienne en 2001-2005.

Selon la Banque, une augmentation de 10% des investissements en infrastructure correspond à une croissance du PIB de 1%. Un tel investissement crée aussi des emplois, aussi bien à court terme en créant de la demande en matières premières et en main d'œuvre, qu'à long terme, en stimulant la demande en services connexes. Par exemple, tous les 100 millions de dollars investis dans l'entretien des réseaux routiers secondaires se traduisent par 25 000 à 50 000 nouveaux emplois.

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